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October 21, 2020

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Sunday Sweats: A variety of last-minute bets to add as the NFL kicks off

Trubisky

Charles Rex Arbogast / AP

Chicago Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky throws during the second half of an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers Thursday, Sept. 5, 2019, in Chicago.

An NFL betting card doesn’t seem complete without a few late additions on Sunday morning, right?

That’s how a lot of bettors feel anyway. I know I’d count myself among that group. Such hankering for a final few pieces of action is the impetus for the new “Sunday Sweats” column.

I pick every game on the board against the spread earlier in the week, so this space will steer clear of that and instead dive into different betting options in a number of other categories.

Read below for the inaugural, NFL week 1 version of Sunday Sweats below.

Tasty total: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions under 43.5 points (William Hill)

I’ve already locked in two week 1 unders, so let’s go elsewhere for a third. Does anyone expect the Bears offense to light up the scoreboard behind Mitchell Trubisky? Didn’t think so. The mistake could be that no one is expecting much out of the defense either, a unit that could return to being one of the best in the league this season. And they could be getting a break in the opener against a Lions’ offense with a lengthy injury report.

Two-team teaser: Chicago Bears +8.5 & Atlanta Falcons +7.5 at -125 (Circa Sports)

My teasers will be more science than art all year, as there’s rarely value in employing them unless it’s a six-point, two-teamer with both sides passing through the 3 and 7. And it’s minimal value at that with the minus-110 prices on two-team, six-point teasers now long gone in Las Vegas. These were two of my favorite sides of the week, though, and a teaser adds some extra exposure and insurance.

Moneyline parlay: New England Patriots & New Orleans Saints to win at +105 (Circa)

Disclaimer: I don’t bet this way. I don’t think I’ve ever placed a moneyline NFL parlay, but there’s no denying their widespread and increasing popularity over the last several years. My advice would be to limit the number teams and search for the sports book with the best prices. I’m very confident in both these sides to win outright today and Circa is offering both at a slightly-lower-than-market price — New England at -315 and New Orleans at -178.

Prop-hunting: Henry Ruggs III to score first touchdown in Raiders at Panthers at 10-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Let’s add a second touchdown prop to today’s historic Raiders game. Las Vegas hasn’t remotely attempted to hide the fact that they’re going to try to get Ruggs the ball in any way possible. That includes in the red zone, even though he’s more known as a deep-threat burner. Expect this number to go down in future games.

Non-football play: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders under 5.5 goals +120 (William Hill)

A total of 18 goals in two of the first three Eastern Conference Final games has obscured the fact that this is an under series. Look for the pace to be less breakneck and the offense to be more fleeting in Game 4. In six matchups between these two teams this year including the regular season, there’s been an average of 5.05 expected goals — making this large of a plus-price on under 5.5 too good to pass up.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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